According to various Analysts, these prevailing conditions would ultimately result in total failure of the state. The rising monetary problems and the continued failure of the Government in combating them would bring the whole country to a standstill. The country at this point would be unsuccessful to perform its basic functions. This situation would result in threatening the steadiness of the nation’s neighbouring countries and the whole region could plunge into a series of hostilities against each other.
The resulting crisis may be so severe that it could impact negatively on the stabilization operation of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in Afghanistan. Some Analysts point out that in coming months, this situation might result in eruption of warfare due to increasing dissatisfaction among the local populace. The ensuing dissatisfaction may lead to the possible overthrow of the current regime. Such action could draw the country into chaos and internal conflict. The country might have detached from Soviet Union, but its economy is still deeply affected by the developments in Russia.
Therefore, the developments in the neighbouring Russian Federation and Central Asia Region directly affect developments in Tajikistan. Background Tajikistan is considered to have the worst economy out of the various nations that were carved out of the former USSR. The country’s GDP in 2007 accounted for US$3. 2 billion, while the per capita income was estimated to be US$578. The inflation rate has shown a continuous increase in recent years with the inflation rate in 2008 recorded at 19. 8%. The balance of trade in 2008 recorded a negative turnover, reflecting imbalances in the exports and imports.
In 2008, the average salary, for people in Tajikistan, was estimated to be US$68. It would be unfair to compare the flagging condition of the nation’s economy with other break away states of the former Soviet Union. The current state of the Tajik economy is far more comparable with poor nations of Africa or Asia. The development of Tajikistan has faced several hurdles in the past. These hurdles are of diverse nature as they include various geographic and historical factors, as well as, economic and political factors.
The economic factors include the poor development of the industry, weak infrastructure, lack of communication networks and lack of foreign investments. There were various political factors that negatively affected the economy of Tajikistan. These political factors came into picture right after its break up with the USSR. The 1992 – 1997 civil wars, in particular, had a major role to play in disturbing the economy of Tajikistan. Although the civil war ended with a firm settlement, it failed to bring any benefit to the country. After the civil war ended, Emomali Rahmon occupied the position of President of Tajikistan in 1994.
Emomali could not gain any benefit from the settlements reached after the civil war or from the West, due to Afghanistan’s related war on Terror. He does not appear to have made much effort to change the conditions of the country since his inauguration as President. The present political system of the country suffers from many major problems such as corruption, clan system, biasness and bureaucracy. It is also alleged that certain elements of the Government and state apparatus is engaged in smuggling of drugs in the region. In order to understand this crisis, the background of country’s political and economical state is essential.